A Bullish Case for Kenya (1)
Kenya has regional — East and Central — acclaim as the financial, political, and economic hub. It’s made its way into large parts of the South, financially, and attempts to extend its reach, in all aforestated departments, as it gains public confidence. Exports and imports suggest that Kenya is currently the manufacturing hub of East Africa, with its reach, thereof, largely constrained by supply, labour shortages, a housing crisis, trade-bloc regulations, among others. These constraints influence the export outlay of Kenya being as follows: largest export market as Uganda, US, Pakistan, UK — in that order. And largest exports as tea — mainly sold to Asia, textiles — mainly sold to the US, and flowers — mainly sold to Netherlands. A lot of ink has been spilled over the aforestated topics, but not much has been written on the following topics with which I aim to make a bullish case for Kenya, and conjecture solutions to the main issues Kenya currently faces.
1. SECTORAL ANALYSIS
Over the last 20 years, Kenya has made major leaps in the combined sector of Information and Communications Technology, Digital Economy, and Fintech, currently positioning it as the tech-hub of Africa. As of 2025, tech startups in Kenya account for approximately 30% of all the debt-financing for tech startups on the continent, and by positioning itself in this manner, Kenya takes on a less fragile approach to tech-startup funding than is currently deployed elsewhere (i.e selling/buying future funding).
Doubling down on the tech-centeredness, several years ago, Kenya embarked on the planning and building of a new tech city named Konza Technopolis, or Silicon Savannah, whose reach extends across Machakos, Makueni, Kajiado. Kenya’s fintech startup scene has a more conducive regulatory environment and higher per-capita impact than its largest competitor in the Africa fintech space, Nigeria, and with MPesa specifically, Kenya has outpaced and challenged legacy banking. Additionally, excelling in agritech, healthtech, and digital integration boosts services, which contribute an approximate 70% to the country’s GDP growth.
Kenya has made leaps in premium safaris over the last 20 years, witnessing a consistent 4-18% rise in earnings over the aforestated years in premium safaris, and with the latter making a 64-80% contribution to Kenya’s overall tourism earnings over that duration. By 2025, Kenya leads this space, with regard to per-visitor premium yield and iconic exclusivity (the migration), in Africa.
Major ground has, over the last 20 years, been covered by Kenya with regard to renewable energy — geothermal and off-grid solar energy — in both production, domestic usage, and capital-attraction. There’s ongoing generation at major producer plants like the Olkaria 1-6 series operated by KenGen, and other private producer plants including Menengai Geothermal Field and Wellhead Geothermal Plants — all often contributing toward an approximate 42% renewable energy share of overall electricity generation by the country. Renewable energy startups in Kenya have also captured 57% of all of Africa’s renewable energy financing. Kenya is on a mission to electrify all Boda Bodas and Matatus under usage within the country, and as of 2025, 40 % of all the Boda Boda’s deployed under Bolt’s electric Boda Boda-hailing branch were eletricity-reliant. Additionally, there are currently major partnerships with EV enterprises — like Aquilastar, Tad Motors, among others — ensuring full and partial assembly of electric vehicles within Kenya.
Kenya currently has the highest domestic connectivity in Africa — contributing to efficient domestic trade and thriving, dispersed urban settlements — largely as a result of the immense initiatives made to privatise and deregulate the sector.
Business Process Outsourcing (BPOs) — majorly comprising call centres, data processing, back-office operations, IT-enabled services, customer support, and concerning which Kenya mainly serves the Middle East, Africa, USA, and Europe — are a highly under-noticed sector in which the country has made significant strides partly. Over the the last 20 years, Kenya has shown an incrementally-spaced cumulative revenue of $2-4 billion in this sector. And as of 2025, it far outdoes its main Africa competitors — in this sector — with regard to cost-effectiveness, faster growth, offering lower operational costs, digital ecosystem integration, less-stuffed regulatory environment, and higher government incentives.
Horticulture, over the last 20 years, has witnessed major steps, as the sector saw an approximate 10-15% yearly growth, with cut flowers — Kenya’s primary horticulture element — transforming from a niche to returning an approximate $700-900 million annual revenue, and as of 2025, Kenya supplies 40% of EU roses. Horticulture has also returned a cumulative revenue of $15-25 billion, rising from hundreds of millions to billions, over the last 20 years. By having an edge in private-sector efficiency, excelling in premium export niches, dominating the EU market, especially Netherlands, this has ensured that Kenya outright dominates the premium cut flower space within Africa, and positioned it in a highly competitive manner with regard to other horticulture elements.
These sectoral advances, over the last 20 years, point toward Kenya’s shift to niche exports, services, and digital diversification. Kenya has witnessed an increment in services contribution, to an approximate 52-60% of GDP. Kenya has also witnessed a decline in contribution of agriculture from an approximate 30% to 22%, but of 2025, manufacturing/industry has a tiny 6-17% contribution to the GDP.
2. DOMESTIC ECONOMY, CENTRAL BANK OPERATIONS
Over the last 20 years, Kenya’s Balance of Payments have reflected a persistent, albeit narrowing, deficit amounting to approximately 3-6% of GDP — with the widening as a result of machinery and manufactured goods imports, and the narrowing being a result of remittances, tourism, horticulture and tea exports. The narrowing undoubtedly a remarkable sign, but the main contributors, to the narrowing, requiring a change.
The Kenya GDP growth on the hand, over the last 20 years, has shown a consistent upward rise of 4-8%, outperforming its Africa competitors like Ghana and Morocco which have each shown a slight upward rise of 5-6%, and far outdoing South Africa which has seen an 18-2% down trend. Kenya’s GDP as a share of Africa GDP has also witnessed a significant upward move over the last 20 years, from 2% to 4.5%, going toe to toe with Ghana which has witnessed a rise from 1% to 4%, and far outcompeting South Africa which witnessed a decline from 25% to 13%.
Kenya’s Debt-to-GDP has risen over the last 20 years, from 40% to 73%, and as of 2025, it’s at a steep 69.1%, creating an environment of high fears of distress. Various measures are being conjectured and discussed to contain and lower it to 55%, while other measures — narrowing the deficit, diversifying reserves, liability operations — are currently being deployed to ward off external debt risk. With regard to Kenya’s liability operations, in 2025 its dollar-denominated loans — owed to China — were converted to Yuan, in order to capitalise on the lower interest rates for immediate fiscal relief.
Reserve management has witnessed an increase in forex reserves over the last 5 years from $7 billion in 2020, to an approximate $12 billion in 2025. Additionally, as of 2025, measures are being deployed to diversify the reserves by making major increments to currently insignificantly-sized gold holdings, and thereby deploying a more strategically-sound reserve layout — one as well able to grapple with the numerous variables and volatility.
The can-do energy, ambition, and little-to-no complacency in Nairobi is unlike many places in the world at the moment — a key element that is rarely mentioned.
3. MAJOR CONCERNS, SOLUTIONS
In addition to the two major concerns broached in the previous section, there is concern over volatile neighbouring regimes, difficulties scaling industry to compete at a global scale — despite the rate at which Kenya has attracted capital being of consistent increment over the last 20 years, and as of 2025, Kenya attracting capital, especially digital economy FDI, at a higher rate than its Africa competitors — labour shortages, trade-bloc regulations, and a housing crisis.
Manufacturing/industry currently contributing a meagre 6-17% to the GDP is a major concern warranting more attention than is currently accorded it. All ears should be deaf to the tunnel-visioned arguments in line with Kenya turning toward agriculture, and more discussion focused on making conducive conditions for housing crisis-alleviation, incentivising labour migration to curb shortages, devising strategies to scale manufacturing/industry for global competition, figuring out how Kenya is to capitalise on the AfCFTA — for entry and competition in the various Africa regions.